Could Ukraine withstand a mass mobilization of the Russian military?

By | May 9, 2022

Yes, I think they can.

Russia has 280,000 troops in the regular army. They committed about 190,000 to this entire misadventure, at the start of it. That includes support elements that drive supply trucks, perform maintenance on tanks and aircraft, and various support roles. In other words, guys that haven’t the faintest idea how to fight in an infantry unit. What this means is that Russia’s combat troop losses are about one-quarter of available troops. Essentially, their formations are non-combat-viable.

There’s remaining active duty troops, guarding Russian’s flanks near Finland and the super-long borders with Kazakhstan and China, and I suppose you could pull them in, but they were already thin in the first place, and ostensibly placed there for a reason. Should we discount that reason, now?

Of the 900,000 total, Russia also has a reserve, but of them, only 5,000 have maintained regular readiness. The rest are getting old, soft in the middle, and more expert with a bottle of Stoli than they are with a Kalashnikov. Maybe they still have their old uniform, feeding moths in a closet somewhere, and maybe a few, just a few, can still fit into it.

Frankly, it would make me sick if Russia called them up. Throwing softies like this guy up against the silver-plated, razor-edged meat-grinder of the Ukrainian military would be like throwing baby seals into battle with lions, tigers, and bears. It would be a bloodbath that accomplishes nothing.

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